Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
