Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
